Views: 1 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2022-08-04 Origin: Site
Organization - My Steel:
The contradiction between main varieties has been significantly alleviated under the continuous decline of molten iron, the mismatch between supply and demand in steel mills, and the inventory of long products and flat products in the market has dropped significantly. In the short term, due to the small point-to-point profits, weak profit expansion expectations, and limited momentum for blast furnace resumption, the overall inventory will be further reduced, and price support will become stronger. It is expected that this week (2022.8.1-8.5) the price of major domestic varieties will fluctuate strongly.
Institution - Steel House:
The current supply and demand fundamentals of the steel market are gradually improving. First, steel mills actively reduce production, and the effect of limiting production is obvious. The domestic blast furnace operating rate has dropped for 6 consecutive weeks, and the electric furnace operating rate has continued to operate at a low level. Affected by this, steel inventories have continued to decline. According to the statistics of the Steel House, the inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 1.34 million tons this week, and the decline has further expanded; the second is the downstream The demand is gradually grasped, and the market turnover has rebounded for two consecutive weeks. According to the survey of Steel House, the average daily transaction volume of rebar, medium and heavy plate and HRC this week was 127,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6%, and the transaction activity continued to improve; The bureau meeting clearly proposed to consolidate the responsibilities of local governments, ensure the delivery of buildings, and protect people's livelihood, which is conducive to activating the demand for existing projects. The unfavorable factors are mainly manifested in: extreme weather such as high temperature and rain, and the frequent occurrence of domestic epidemics restrict the recovery of demand; after the price of raw materials has dropped sharply, the steel mills have already made profits according to the current cost, and some enterprises have the intention to resume production. In general, with the improvement of supply and demand relationship and the improvement of sentiment, it is expected that this week (2022.8.1-8.5) the domestic steel market price will continue to show a volatile rebound trend.
Institution - Lange:
On July 28, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting. The meeting believed that the current economic operation is facing some prominent contradictions and problems. It is necessary to maintain strategic focus, do a good job in economic work in the second half of the year, and adhere to the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability. The overall keynote is to fully, accurately and fully implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, consolidate the trend of economic recovery, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range. At the same time, the meeting emphasized that macro policies should be active in expanding demand, fiscal and monetary policies should effectively make up for insufficient social demand, and at the same time, local governments should make good use of special bond funds to support local governments in making full use of their special debt limits, and monetary policies should also maintain liquidity. Reasonably and adequately, increase credit support for enterprises, and make good use of new credit from policy banks and investment funds for infrastructure construction. It is also necessary to stabilize the real estate market, adhere to the positioning that houses are for living in, not for speculation, make full use of the policy toolbox for city-specific policies, support rigid and improved housing needs, compact local government responsibilities, and ensure delivery of buildings , stabilize people's livelihood. For the domestic steel market, the improvement in terminal demand is the key to the real recovery of the steel market. The improvement in infrastructure demand is just around the corner, and the real estate demand may have the expectation that the construction pace will be accelerated and the consumption will gradually increase. From the perspective of the supply side, due to the recent strengthening of iron ore and coking coal prices, the supporting role of the cost side has reappeared. At the same time, the profits of some electric furnace plants have begun to improve, and the willingness to resume production is gradually increasing. From the perspective of demand, due to the low rebound of steel prices, under the influence of the mentality of "buying up, not buying down", part of the demand for stockpiling began to be released. However, due to the influence of high temperature and rainy weather, the construction progress of the project was still limited, and the terminal Whether the demand can be released as scheduled is the focus of market concerns. From the perspective of cost, coking coal prices have strengthened again and coke prices have continued to fall, which has forced coking enterprises to increase production restrictions again. At the same time, the rebound in iron ore prices has made the cost support role of the steel market reappear. In the short term, the domestic steel market will face a situation in which the willingness to reduce production is weakened, the demand for stockpiling is released, the terminal demand is yet to be resolved, and the cost support is reproduced. 8.5) The domestic steel market will continue to fluctuate and rebound slightly, but it cannot be ruled out that due to insufficient release of terminal demand, there is a risk of a correction in some varieties.
Institutions - Tang and Song Dynasties:
The off-season effect continued this week, and construction conditions were in the most difficult period. From the perspective of demand, the interest rate hike in the United States, the end of the Politburo meeting, the implementation of macroeconomic boots, the gradual implementation of domestic economic stabilization measures, the recovery of market confidence, the strengthening of the market’s willingness to buy goods at bargain prices, the steel terminal demand has maintained a certain recovery, although the overall The demand market is still in the "off-season" but continues to show a month-on-month recovery. From the perspective of supply, the loss of long-process steel companies has been greatly improved, the regional steel companies have reduced their own power, and the continued power to stop production has weakened. ; The operating rate of short-process production lines continued to rebound slightly. Overall steel production has stopped falling or is now growing slightly. The social inventory and total inventory of main varieties will continue to decrease slightly, the overall inventory will be at a high level, and the pressure on rebar inventory in some areas will be significantly reduced. During the week, the reduction of regional blast furnaces and the reduction of production stoppages, the operating rate of blast furnaces and the production of pig iron may rebound, the expectation of growth in demand for raw materials has increased, the support of rising raw fuel prices has increased, and the role of costs in supporting steel prices has gradually emerged. At present, the overall supply and demand conditions in the market have improved, the inventory pressure has decreased, and the cost support has been strengthened.
Agency - Teng Di:
The price of steel has raised the oversold part back, which means that the best opportunity to "buy the bottom" is over, but it does not mean that the rise is over, and the market will run on a new price platform.. There have been three price increases from last year to this year. Take the strip as an example, they are 2,000 yuan, 700 yuan, and 700 yuan respectively. This is the fourth time. The current market is that the demand is growing month-on-month, and it is expected to be stable, while the output is at a low level, especially the output of rebar, which is much lower than the demand, and in the first seven months, even in the month with the highest steel price and output, the weekly output was only 3.1 million tons Left and right, indicating that the thread production is not easy to recover, this variety may be an important "anchor" that affects the later market, keep an eye on it! When the market returns to normal, we should operate normally. When danger comes and not everyone is cautious, think about what it was like before the first three declines. We will try our best to find this risk point. We stopped production on May 1 last year and reduced the warehouse, in September, and at the end of March this year, all of which started when the market was very hot. Judging the market is good for business, but you can't bet on the market. Betting up is a bet, and betting down is a bet. Only by finding a good business model that suits you is the kingly way. Weekend market prices are lively again, and I think a new stage has begun, make a pot of West Lake Longjing jasmine tea, and prepare for continued steady and normal operations!